Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
